Critical behavior of epidemics depending on the interplay between temporal scales and human behavior

This paper is the result of the joint work carried out during the Master thesis of Davide Maniscalco and my Master thesis.

The results obtained and showed in the paper were later employed in the seasonal forecasting of influenza epidemics in Italy, in collaboration with the Italian Ministry of Health and the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS), under the coordination of the ISI Fundation.

The paper explores the effects of human mobility and social dynamics on the spreading of epidemics. In particular, we focused on the temporal scales characterizing these two processes, showing that their interplay can lead to critical phenomena in the overall epidemic dynamics. Our findings highlight the importance of considering both mobility patterns and social behavior when modeling and predicting epidemic outbreaks, providing valuable insights for public health strategies and interventions.

Recommended citation: Maniscalco, D., Bertola, T., d’Andrea, V. & De Domenico, M. Critical behavior of epidemics depending on the interplay between temporal scales and human behavior. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 198, 116501 (2025).
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